What I Think

This is 2008.

Allen - tell me what you think of this article. Paul Johnson is one ofmy favorite writers. He writes for Forbes and is usually dead on.  

Thanks!  just read it.  As with many articles, I think it's littered with truths and myths.  Several things stood out.  I know there are many holes in what I write, but this came to mind.  Also, considering what Socrates said (paraphrasing) about knowledge, "The more i think I know, the more doubts I have." 

 

1.  the people in power stayed in power...well, not quite true...i would say they worked their way into power.  during the 90's when reforms were supposed to be taking place, oligarchs were selling off state assets they had purchased for a small amount from the state, and these sales made them, well, oligarchs.  Some have been jailed; some fled the country. 

 

 2.  Putin was not part of the Soviet State when people were sent to gulags.  That went out with Stalin.  Still, it is true he was in the KGB.  He speaks fluent german and lived in eastern germany during last years of communism or just a tad before that.  he was actually selected by Boris Yeltsin, who was hailed by the west as being pro-democratic (and was)...and stepped in and after Yeltson stepped.  so, drawing a connection between Putin and hitler's crimes and certainly stalin's crimes is not accurate.  it's quite a leap. 

 

 3.  putin has never called for the return of the USSR, but correctly stated that it was the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th.  still, Russia is exerting influence, as they have for centuries, over smaller states like the Baltic States and Georgia.  in honesty, the Ukraine is a different beast.  they are a big country with a big population and would not be in Russia's sights, certainly not militarily, the way McCain suggests.  i could be wrong.  also, the ukraine and russia are much closer economically and militarily than we realize.  many millions of russians live there.  and, some famous Soviets were Ukranian. 

 

4.  I think Russia is too smart to simply go after these states militarily.  i would say Putin and the power brokers do use economic and energy leverage to maintain stability on its borders.  naturally, these countries view it as aggressive, but like the countries who deal with China and the US, they realize the game.  history sides with the bigger guns imo. 

 

5.  Russia did indeed fall into chaos and became a mafia state in the 90's and surely this influence exists today.  with the onslaught of capitalism and quick money (again, the oligarchs) a big mafia emerged.  they even have a presence in Thailand.  One could say the Russian gov't is fighting them...others could say they are trying to wrestle the piece of the money pie back for them.  in the process, there are mysterious deaths of business people and journalists.  still, i think it's naive to to think Putin has the time, power or desire to order such attacks. the system is way bigger than putin.

 

6.  today in Russia..the article is right...there's a demographic problem that the country is trying to address. alcoholism is high.  is the gov't siphoning off money and ignoring the people.  probably.  however, from what i saw and what i read there are also huge projects, private and public that are going on. Moscow is the most expensive city in the world, for example.  would russia dry up if energy were not their bread and butter?  well, they'd better diversify.  I can say, Jeff, from my visits to shops, malls, etc., there are many russian brand names and huge numbers of goods that are made in the country.  in a sense, they are much like any country.  kade will tell you that russia is no third or second world power...at least in the cities we visited.  Thailand is a developing country...but even Bangkok surpasses the US in modernity in some areas.  you'd have to visit bangkok.  Russia is rich, but still very fraught with problems...and, for 80% of the population (if you believe polls), Putin is singled out as a reason for this.  keep in mind, though, he's not the president.  mccain and obama can't pronounce the president's name and find greater joy in calling out Putin.  remember, every state ...or every good guy...needs an adversary.  Russia needs us.  We need them.  We both need China.  also, don't forget defense contracts.  Russia is second to the USA in defense contracts and brings in billions in this business.  this would be next to Energy.  and, the way, the world is working, China has money for their high tech goods.  so, i don't see Russia totally drying up.  Russia and china have an alliance that people don't really talk about.